Obama has won in Wisconsin, and in Hawaii where he spent part of his youth. It was reported today that some polls had him with only a 1 point lead over Clinton in Wisconsin, and that was part of why she turned up the negative campaigning. She thought she had a chance. But as it turns out, Obama won handily with 58% of the vote there, compared to 41% for Clinton. Obama won 76% of the vote in Hawaii, compared to 24% for Hillary Clinton.
With those kinds of margins shaping up for Obama, it's hard to see how the super-delegates could turn this election in favor of Clinton. It would be a subversion of democracy if they did.
But Clinton has to see Texas and Ohio as her last chances. Obama has now won 10 states in a row. Clinton has to win Texas and Ohio in order to help her super-delegates feel that they can vote for her. If Obama were to take either Texas or Ohio, it's hard to see how Clinton can even stay in the race. And it's my understanding that Obama has a real good chance in Texas, despite Clinton's support among Hispanic voters. Obama polls very strongly in the parts of the state that have the most delegates--Houston, Dallas, and Austin.
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We went bonkers here in Hawaii. I couldn't attend, but everyone was excited. They printed up 17,000 ballots while a normal crowd was about 5,000. Still, as the Honolulu Advertiser said, "...volunteers at many caucus sites ran out of ballots and blue party membership cards and had to improvise with notebook paper and index cards." This is because 37,000 showed up!! No, not a typo. 37 grand. It was fantastic. Aloha!
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